After all the rhetoric of the last few days - on all sides of the water - whether ocean or channel.
Does anyone believe that the Euro is any nearer to being rescued?
Thought not.
Democracy no longer seems important to Europe.
So what or whom does the election fixers/riggers in the rest of the world have to fear?
Sadly no one!!
So easy for them to turn around and point the finger at Europe - which can no longer be consider a democracy! Where everything is being impossed by non-elected technocrates.
Discusses views from the UK both cultural and political. With a distinct interest in software.
12 December 2011
09 December 2011
What now for the Euro?
After yesterday’s summit in Brussels it is obvious that European politicians do NOT have an answer to the troubles of the Euro! Or, if they know the answer, it is not one that they are prepared to endorse. In my limited knowledge of currencies and the problems of the Euro, I believe its problems have to be addressed from 2 directions at the same time
1) impose austerity on the weak economies of the south
2) let the ECB print money to cause inflation and thereby reduce the value of the Euro in international markets
Neither one will work on its own. Both together and it stands a chance of saving the Euro. With this 2 directional approach both weak and strong countries take the pain. What we have at the moment is the imposition of the strong on the weak. With the weak taking all the punishment. (Merkels and Sarkozys attitude to Cameron, reminds one off the school bullies in the playground, not of astute politicians.) If this imbalance continues, then it is a slow drift to the inevitable break up of the Euro and ultimately the EU. For the markets will not relent in pursuing the weaknesses perceived in the Euro and its sovereign debt exposure.
As time ticks by, people in the weaker economies of Europe will become more and more restless and frustrated at the imposed austerity and lack of democracy. Military junta’s are not unknown in these countries. At some point a country will reach the tipping point when it will be less painful to leave the Euro than to remain in it. If the countries elected government doesn’t move at that point, I fear that a strong cabal of military leaders will take matters into their own hands.
When will the politicians of Germany and France ‘face the facts’ and do what everybody else can see and do what is bleeding obvious.
1) impose austerity on the weak economies of the south
2) let the ECB print money to cause inflation and thereby reduce the value of the Euro in international markets
Neither one will work on its own. Both together and it stands a chance of saving the Euro. With this 2 directional approach both weak and strong countries take the pain. What we have at the moment is the imposition of the strong on the weak. With the weak taking all the punishment. (Merkels and Sarkozys attitude to Cameron, reminds one off the school bullies in the playground, not of astute politicians.) If this imbalance continues, then it is a slow drift to the inevitable break up of the Euro and ultimately the EU. For the markets will not relent in pursuing the weaknesses perceived in the Euro and its sovereign debt exposure.
As time ticks by, people in the weaker economies of Europe will become more and more restless and frustrated at the imposed austerity and lack of democracy. Military junta’s are not unknown in these countries. At some point a country will reach the tipping point when it will be less painful to leave the Euro than to remain in it. If the countries elected government doesn’t move at that point, I fear that a strong cabal of military leaders will take matters into their own hands.
When will the politicians of Germany and France ‘face the facts’ and do what everybody else can see and do what is bleeding obvious.
08 December 2011
Demise of the Euro?
With the likelyhood of the breakup of the euro within the next months or even days. What will this mean for your business systems?
What will it mean for your business?
First we need to ascertain what the new currencies will be:
Northern Euro and Southern Euro?
Euro with New Greek drachma and New Italian Lira? May be even a Spainish and Portugese one thrown in.
Who can say at this stage!
What is certain is that new currency codes will be required at short notice along with conversations rates between the new currencies.
Will your business systems be able to cope?
When the Euro was introduced it was a slow process over several years. A breakup, should it come, will be without warning and will have to be accommodated in a few hours.
What you could be doing now - is
a) reducing your exposure to the Euro,
b) converting Euros bank balances into another currency,
c) invoicing in another currency in place of the euro,
d) trying to get suppliers to invoice in another currency,
e) investigating how to handle the new currencies and conversions of any assets and liabilites to new currencies.
Not all of this is possible as it will depend upon your customers and suppliers. Plus, exchange rates being what they are you can never be sure that a loss now want be much bigger if and when the "euro hits the fan"! Or, in fact become a profit due to market uncertainty being removed.
Therefore, I feel businesses need to be thinking about a strategy for all this uncertainty. Remember a risk managed, is far better than a risk ignored!
What will it mean for your business?
First we need to ascertain what the new currencies will be:
Northern Euro and Southern Euro?
Euro with New Greek drachma and New Italian Lira? May be even a Spainish and Portugese one thrown in.
Who can say at this stage!
What is certain is that new currency codes will be required at short notice along with conversations rates between the new currencies.
Will your business systems be able to cope?
When the Euro was introduced it was a slow process over several years. A breakup, should it come, will be without warning and will have to be accommodated in a few hours.
What you could be doing now - is
a) reducing your exposure to the Euro,
b) converting Euros bank balances into another currency,
c) invoicing in another currency in place of the euro,
d) trying to get suppliers to invoice in another currency,
e) investigating how to handle the new currencies and conversions of any assets and liabilites to new currencies.
Not all of this is possible as it will depend upon your customers and suppliers. Plus, exchange rates being what they are you can never be sure that a loss now want be much bigger if and when the "euro hits the fan"! Or, in fact become a profit due to market uncertainty being removed.
Therefore, I feel businesses need to be thinking about a strategy for all this uncertainty. Remember a risk managed, is far better than a risk ignored!
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